Регионално развитие – проблеми и подходи

Резултат с изображение за РАБОТА ЗА РЕГИОНАЛНОТО РАЗВИТИЕ

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това е страницата на доц.д-р Камен Петров, моята скромна дейност е посветена на работа по проблемите на регионалното развитие и особеностите на регионалната икономика в макро, мезо и микро план. Вярвам, че регионалното битие трябва да бъде национален приоритет за всяка съвременна държава и то олицетворява нейния модерен начин на живот.

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  • Country decline and ideas for reform
    Regional development of republic of Bulgaria.
    Associate Prof. Kamen Petrov

    In geo-economic terms, the period 2015-2020 may prove key to socio-economic development of Bulgaria. Mostly, in this period Bulgarian government is called upon to make key reforms related to governance and development of the national economy. Meanwhile runs clear horizon management of Bulgarian municipalities in the period up to 2019 and still open issues with aging in Bulgaria, ongoing political instability, especially the increased traffic through refugee in our country. Most analysts believe the country needs a change in the labor market, education and health, but especially for a clear and distinct strategy for economic development. Increasing the retirement age to 65 years is not a good solution. It’ll probably need to encourage more flexible working conditions and adapting jobs to the needs of the older workforce. Will increases the share of workers from non Bulgarian origin. According to expert assessment considered that Roma already represent between 9 and 19% of new entrants in the labor market. According to the analysis, an aging population will lead to an unprecedented demand for health care and the quality and efficiency of health care in this country is lagging behind. The population in Bulgaria continues to decline. For the past 20 years its number has decreased with 1,105,559 people. The natural population growth (the difference between births and deaths) continues to be negative. In this direction the government has need in terms of total economic decline and poor infrastructure over the next two years to reverse the trend. According to expert estimates the economic situation will be most severe in the second half of 2016 and first half of 2017. Such pessimism share a number of factors from the European Commission. This effectively requires the Bulgarian government to take the right decisions to reduce the effect of country decline. In this direction we are faced with the dilemma „We can only win if we act quickly“? On the contrary, in this case the machine is important for liberalization and industrial lobbies that inspired her to be stopped, not least because the country needs new rules of economic development and simplification of administrative regulations. An obvious fact is that the Constitution of 12/07/1991, it no longer works, and meanwhile the first time in recent history in this Parliament there are conditions for greater constitutional majority on its change. The change of the constitutional model can set a new impetus to socio-economic development of the country over the next 20 years to set a new model of restoration of Bulgarian statehood and laying the foundations of a new economic growth. In practice, our country is now de-industrialized and largest employer is the state. Going back in time, we shall see that on the eve of change Bulgarian economy was huge industrialized, ripe for transition to post-industrial era. This is evident in all macroeconomic indicators and a number non-quantity signs – especially the level of education, health and social security, embodied in the quality of the human factor. In practice, at the beginning of 1990, the Bulgarian economy is the result of the industrialization of the 50s and 60s of the twentieth century. Then about 20-25 years, our economy shows that Socialist how it will be transformed into a new qualitative state. Set transformation actually had two main theses. The first is a smooth transition to the preservation of the constitutional model of the 1971 course with appropriate adjustments and transformations, the second thesis is putting the whole transitional new constitutional model of economic development. To a large extent the lack of political consensus in society create a relatively imbalanced constitution, which has its advantages, but deficits posed decline and atrophy of the political system and generate economic instability in the country’s development. To a great extent in mid-2015 Bulgaria is a drastic economic decline, as evidenced by the collapse of the socio-economic structure – ambiguous role and decline of state property and digestion systems organization and management of labor; crisis of our industrialized economy, expressed in the inability to transition to a post-industrial technologies; reinforcing decline in production of goods and services, accompanied with cuts in household consumption; destruction of the monetary system and degradation of the market due to bypass the limits of intervention by the administration. They are important parameters of decline because without quantitative benchmarks we cannot look out.
    With an emphasis on, energy, transport, construction, health, education and others. Data analysis for Bulgarian Industry revealed serious structural weaknesses. For example, almost half of employment in industry of Bulgaria is in sectors dependent on cheap labor and sectors related to the use of natural resources form the largest share in the gross value added of industry. Both sectors form a significant share of Bulgarian exports have limited potential for future development and offer opportunities to increase the income of employees in their workforce. Bulgaria is heavily dependent on sectors related to natural resources. They have the highest share of value added (26.2%) and third in employment in industry (20.8%), the country is far more dependent on these sectors of the EU 27 (respectively 15.5% and 15.8% ). The main natural resources with which Bulgaria has are fertile land, vast forests, the presence of ores of nonferrous metals, coal and lignite. Any change in the price of oil, ferrous and precious metals, as well as the prices of agricultural commodities such as wheat and sunflower have an immediate impact on Bulgarian exports, as exports of raw materials represent a significant part of the country’s exports. In practice over the past 25 years the country has no clear strategy how to develop the economy. It is therefore necessary large-scale operation to restructure the economy according to natural and other resources of the country, decisive forming agent to stabilize the shaky foundations. Such restructuring needs due to deformed production and non-production sphere, to overcome one of the fundamental sources of our current troubles -chaotic the country’s industrialization and vague possibilities and capacity of existing production capacities. Another deficit is access to energy resources in our country. Only, will celebrate the state of gasification of the country. Bulgaria is divided into 5 distribution areas with designated areas for construction of gas distribution networks. It is important to note that at this stage these areas do not include municipalities that are more distant from major gas pipelines and their main distribution branches. Ensuring access to promising and effective source of energy for industry, households and public buildings in municipalities that are not included in the list of designated territories for gas distribution (distribution areas) is essential for improving the business environment and promote economic development and competitiveness .
    Successful economic development must be connected with the advent of new legislation primarily related to the law on industrial zones and technology parks, the aim is to ascertain best practices and to prepare legislative and administrative proposals to ease the conditions for investment and promote interest to businesses in industrial zones. Improve the Law on Investment Promotion, through which regulates the terms and conditions for the promotion of investment in the Republic of Bulgaria, the activity of state bodies in the field of investment promotion and protection. Deficits of the current legislation, that it impedes rather than attracts investments in our country. Another question regarding the role of the administration in this process. Vision of government is strictly conservative based on the calls for strict financial discipline in the name of preserving the reputation of good debtor and stable state are an expression of the dominant so far external- economic doctrine. This relates especially to the state of the third Bulgarian state always depend on loans and debts. It is true that the causes of the debt are not only waste, but they are not in error as trying to persuade us. World economy ejected with increasing centrifugal force like our economies fail to realize the good intentions for development.

  • Бъдещето на регионалното развитие е в интернационалните проекти и магистрали

    Автомагистралата „Дунав-Егея“, която ще свърже Дунав мост с „Маказа“, ще „стопи“ разстоянието между тях до 2 ч и 50 минути с лека кола и до 3 ч 55 мин с товарна. Целта е да се преведе транзитният трафик в направление север – юг от Северна, Централна, Източна Европа и България към Гърция, Турция и Близкия изток, да се отвори нова търговска врата към Източното Средиземноморие и за стоките от Суецкия канал през Гърция. Този нов проект може да има дължината на скоростното трасе, предвидено по мегапроекта, е 367, 285 км, от които 327, 865 са на българска територия. Магистралата е предвидено да започва от Дунав мост при Русе и да завършва при бъдещето пристанище на Мароня. Ще има 38 пътни възли, 33 тунела, 56,6 км мостове и виадукти и т.н. Проектантите обясниха, че е заложена реконструкция на ГКПП „Дунав мост“ и изграждане на две нови ГКПП на „Маказа“ от българска и гръцка страна. Този проект АМ „Дунав – Егея“ може да се изгражда чрез публично-частно партньорство. Моделът е концесия срещу строителство, без да се разходват средства от бюджета. Инвестицията, която ще направи концесионерът, ще се изплаща с приходи от бъдещите тол-такси. Първата стъпка е да има решение на двете правителства – българското и гръцкото, за изграждане на АМ „Дунав – Егея“. Плановете на проектантите са това да се случи през пролетта на 2020 г, а до края на 2021 г. обектът да е с издадено разрешително за строеж. Прогнозният срок за строителството е 3 г. Началото на експлоатацията е 2025 г., краят на концесията – 2067 г.

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